Just how Republicans won Michigan, how they lost it, and what all of it informs us.
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The “blue wall surface” when referred to a group of Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast specifies that, standard knowledge said, “always elect for Democrats.” For Democrats, that was wrong, and in 2016 Donald Trump amazingly won three “blue wall” states– including, narrowly, the state of Michigan.
Michigan in certain had actually been completely taken over since 2010 by Republicans, that then spent years gutting unions, limiting abortion, loosening ecological defenses, and normally simply turning a Republican plan desire checklist into legislation. Trump winning Michigan was, in a way, simply the conclusion of a years-long drift to the right there.
In a midterm political election where Republicans were preferred, Democrats won every branch of chosen government in Michigan– governor, state House, and state Senate. All of a sudden Michigan was cranking out much more dynamic regulation than virtually any type of other state in the US.
To evaluate: Michigan was once a blue state, except it wasn’t actually, and in reality over time it got quite red, but then it ended up being a real blue state. Clearly, the reality is that Michigan is a swing state. And it can inform us a whole lot regarding our next election, also.
Chapters:
0:00 The blue wall
2:42 Maps
4:52 The bellwether
9:51 Exit polls
13:08 2022
15:43 Michigan and the United States
Correction: the timeline inaccurately shows Republicans winning control of the state House in 2006. Democrats won the House that year.
Sources:
For Michigan political election data we drew from two beneficial web sites from the Michigan Department of State. Initially, they have election results to the area level returning to the late 90s: https://www.michigan.gov/sos/elections/election-results-and-data
They also have a tool that creates political election results down to the city/township degree: https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cfr/precinct_srch.cgi
To reveal nationwide and statewide exit polls with time, we used NBC News’s information– they’re among the only companies whose granular departure poll results both country wide and statewide going back a decade are still openly readily available.
Here are web links to their Michigan departure surveys from 2012-2022:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2012-election/michigan/president/index.html#exitPoll
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/mi/governor/exitpoll/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/mi/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mi/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-president-results/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/michigan-governor-results
And right here are their national exit surveys from 2012-2022:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2012-election/all/president/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/us/house/exitpoll/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/president/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/exit-polls
The ordinary per capita personal earnings of each Michigan region came from the United States’s Bureau of Economic Analysis: https://shorturl.at/jtyM5
The question concerning whether the 2020 political election need to be overturned came from a May 2022 survey by Detroit’s chamber of commerce: https://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/May-2022-Michigan-Voter-Survey-Report_Final.pdf
The data on Middle Eastern and North African Americans came from the 2020 US Census (which was the first one ever to ask about the US’s MENA populace!): https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/2020-census-dhc-a-mena-population.html
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