Cook Political Report editor: Republicans now more likely to flip senate

The 2024 Senate races are heating up, and recent developments suggest Democrats may be facing a tough time holding onto key seats. One of the biggest shifts involves Montana, a state where Democrats have typically been able to compete despite its Republican lean. However, according to Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors editor at the Cook Political Report, Montana now leans Republican as the race unfolds. Let’s dive into what’s happening in Montana, compare that to Ohio, and explore the broader Senate map.

Why Montana Is Moving Toward Republicans

Montana’s shift toward the Republicans stems from several factors. Polls—both public and internal—show incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester trailing his Republican opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. While the margins vary, some polls suggest a gap as wide as six to eight points. When you’re an incumbent this late in the election cycle and you’re trailing, it’s not a good sign.

Tester has previously managed to win in Republican-leaning Montana, where Trump won by 16 points in 2020. His ability to win in red cycles goes back to 2006, 2012, and even 2018, a strong year for Democrats who capitalized on a midterm backlash against GOP policies. Republicans struggled to get Tester on the defensive in those years. But this time, the numbers just aren’t the same.

One of the most worrying data points for Democrats: Tester’s approval ratings are now underwater. That’s unusual for someone who has positioned himself as a survivor in red states. Meanwhile, his opponent Sheehy is running positive ads, highlighting his military background and emphasizing his Montana roots, a clear appeal to local voters. Democrats have tried to hit Sheehy on some business dealings, but so far, the strategy doesn’t seem to be gaining serious traction.

It’s not yet game over for Tester, but Democrats cannot ignore his disadvantage. The numbers and national climate are tilting the race against him.

Why Ohio Is a Different Story

While Montana races toward Republicans, Ohio’s Senate race is proving more competitive for Democrats. Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is holding on better than Tester. This might seem odd given that Trump won Ohio by eight points, but the key difference lies in Republican candidate quality and strategy.

Tim Sheehy in Montana has spent more time fostering a positive image, similar to how Brown has positioned himself as a champion for workers in Ohio. In contrast, Ohio Republicans have dealt with a messy primary. Bernie Moreno, a former luxury car dealer, emerged as the Republican nominee after a contentious primary, but he largely went dark over the summer. This inactivity may have cost him momentum, while Brown continued to solidify his standing.

Even though Trump has won Ohio by large margins in the past, polls show that Brown is still competitive. Historically, Brown has outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket, and while Trump might carry the state again, the margins are often smaller when it comes to Senate races. Brown doesn’t need to win by much; he just needs to hold the line.

It seems like the numbers deviate less in Ohio than they do in Montana, allowing Brown more breathing room in a state that leans red but capable of swinging.

What Happens Without Montana?

If Tester loses in Montana, Democrats will need to find another seat to flip in order to maintain a majority in the Senate. Two names come up consistently: Texas and Florida. Both states are currently rated as “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report, but that doesn’t mean Democrats don’t have opportunities, especially if conditions shift before Election Day.

In Texas, incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz faces a challenge from Colin Allred, a congressman from the Dallas area who has been raising significant amounts of money. Texas remains a red state at the presidential level, but Democrats see an opening with Allred’s strong fundraising and popular appeal in urban areas. While not impossible, flipping Texas will be difficult.

Florida, on the other hand, presents a unique opportunity with an abortion amendment on the ballot. Democrats believe this issue—along with the GOP’s stance on abortion in general—could drive significant turnout among their base, particularly women and young voters. Still, Florida has its challenges. Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott’s personal wealth allows him to self-fund his campaign. This financial advantage puts Democrats at a structural disadvantage, as Scott can flood the state with ads without relying on outside donations.

While Allred is ahead in fundraising compared to the Democratic challenger in Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, neither candidate can match the vast sums that Scott can draw from his own accounts. That’s why many observers suggest Texas may be a slightly better bet for the Democrats. Both states are costly to run in, with multiple media markets demanding large campaign budgets, but Texas might offer a better chance for a Democratic win.

The Road Ahead

With Montana leaning toward Republicans, Ohio providing some hope, and both Texas and Florida representing long-shot opportunities, Democrats face an uphill climb in retaining their Senate majority. The map is not in their favor, and if key challengers like Sheehy continue to build momentum, it may become even tougher.

To even the playing field, Democrats will need to be strategic with their resources, focusing on turning out voters and defending incumbents in battleground states like Ohio. At the same time, they’ll need to consider throwing more financial support behind challengers in Texas and, potentially, Florida, where key issues like abortion could increase voter turnout in their favor.

In the end, these races will come down to turnout, polling accuracy, and whether candidates like Jon Tester can make a late-stage comeback. One thing is certain, though: every seat will count, and the battle to control the Senate will be one of the most closely watched aspects of the 2024 election.

Be sure to stay informed as things evolve—this is a race where even small changes can make a big impact.